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FACT SHEET

Jan. 24, 2008

Contacts:

Dr. Chuck Tomkovick, tomkovcl@uwec.edu, 715-836-2529
Dr. Rama Yelkur, yelkurr@uwec.edu, 715-836-467

Highlights of UW-Eau Claire stock price research relating to Super Bowl ads

For the 12-year period studied, 1996-2007, Monday before Super Bowl through Friday after the Super Bowl:

  • In the aggregate, firms that advertise in the Super Bowl get a stock price bump.
  • If an investor bought every publicly traded SB stock in the last 12 years on the Monday before the Super Bowl and sold them all five days after the game, he/she would be up by nearly 1.3 percent over the S&P 500 during the same time period.
  • SB stocks have beaten the S&P 500 in 10 of the last 12 years.
  • Looking at two-year patterns instead of annual patterns, SB stocks have beaten S&P 500 in the last 6 out of the last 6 two-year periods.
  • SB stocks versus S&P 500: performance upside is 10 times bigger than the performance downside. In the best of the 12 years, SB stocks beat S&P 500 by 4.5 percent. In the worst years, S&P 500 beat SB stocks by 0.33 percent.
  • Investing in SB ads seems to be shock-resistant. In each of the four years that the S&P declined during the period of study, SB stocks beat the S&P 500.

Super Bowl stock prices versus ad likeability

  • There is no relationship and no association between ad likeability and subsequent stock price performance.
  • In half of the 12-year period of study, the bottom ad likeability SB stocks out performed the top ad likeability SB stocks.
  • Overall, the performance of the bottom half ad likeability SB stocks exceeded the top half ad likeability SB stocks, but in an insignificant manner.

Examples of companies/brands with poor ad likeability but great stock price performance :

  • Revlon (2007). In bottom 5 for ad likeability but with over a 7 percent stock price gain.
  • Warner Brothers (2006). In bottom half for ad likeability but stock up nearly 6 percent.
  • Bubblicious (2005). In bottom 5 for ad likeability but nearly 7 percent stock price gains.
  • Cialis (2004). Poor ad likeability but stock up 5.5 percent.
  • Hormel (1998). Ad likeability in the bottom 5 but stock price up nearly 7 percent.
  • AT&T (1997). Poor ad likeability but stock up 5 percent.
  • Pepcid (1996). Ad likeability in the bottom 5 but stock price up nearly 6 percent.

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